Integrated Valuation Of Ecosystem Services And Tradeoffs Research Articles

Effects of land utilization transformation on ecosystem services in urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China

Land utilization transformation (LUT) is a key factor affecting ecosystem services (ESs). The urban agglomeration on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UATM) is located in a typical arid region with extremely fragile ecological environment. However, the impact of LUT on the spatial pattern of ESs in the region over the past 20 years is not clear. This study aimed to explore LUT characteristics of the urban agglomeration on the UATM using a land transfer matrix, information entropy, land utilization intensity, and land utilization dynamic degree. Various ESs indexes were quantitatively measured using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and the effect of LUT on ESs was revealed through a geographic detector and spatial auto-correlation analyses. The results of this study led to the following conclusions: First, between 2000 and 2020, the primary land utilization types in UATM were arable land, grassland, and bare land, with significant cross-transformations occurring among these types. Meanwhile, LUT showed marked differences among different regions. LUT changed rapidly and significantly in the central region; in contrast, slower and slight changes were observed in the northern and southern regions. Second, during the research period, habitat maintenance, water yield and carbon sequestration decreased, and the soil retention function increased. The accelerated urban development in the second decade led to more rapid changes in ESs. Finally, both the structure and intensity of land utilization showed the strongest explanatory capability for changes in ESs. Different dimensions of LUT showed significant interactions with ESs. Therefore, it is advisable to guide LUT scientifically, promote vegetation restoration projects, alleviate the impacts of human activities and climate change on ESs, and enhance the ecological safety and environmental sustainability of UATM and even arid regions in Central Asia.

Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China

Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals.

Impacts of climate and land use change on terrestrial carbon storage: A multi-scenario case study in the Yellow River Basin (1992–2050)

Currently, socioeconomic development and climate change pose new challenges to the assessment and management of terrestrial carbon storage (CS). Accurate prediction of future changes in land use and CS under different climate scenarios is of great significance for regional land use decision-making and carbon management. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China as the study area, this study proposed a framework integrating the land use harmonization2 (LUH2) dataset, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. Under this framework, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and their impact on CS in the YRB from 1992 to 2050. The results showed that (1) CS was highest in forestland and lowest in construction land, with a spatial distribution of high in the south and low in the north. From 1992 to 2020, construction land, forestland, and grassland increased while cropland decreased, reducing the total CS by 74.04 Tg. (2) From 2020 to 2050, under SSP1–2.6 scenario, forestland increased by 158.87 %; under SSP2–4.5 scenario, unused land decreased by 65.55 %; and under SSP5–8.5 scenario, construction land increased by 13.88 %. By 2050, SSP1–2.6 scenario exhibited the highest CS (8105.25 Tg), followed by SSP2–4.5 scenario (7363.61 Tg), and SSP5–8.5 scenario was the lowest (7315.86 Tg). (3) Forestland and construction land were the most critical factors affecting the CS. Shaanxi and Shanxi had the largest CS in all scenarios, and Qinghai had a huge carbon sink potential under SSP1–2.6 scenario. Scenario modeling demonstrated that future climate and land-use changes would have significant impacts on terrestrial CS in the YRB, and green development pathways could strongly contribute to meeting the dual‑carbon target. Overall, this study provides a scientific basis for promoting low-carbon development, land-use optimization, and ecological civilization construction in YRB, China.

A Multi-Objective Scenario Study of County Land Use in Loess Hilly Areas: Taking Lintao County as an Example

Land use serves as a connecting link between human activities and the natural ecology of the surface; under the multi-objective background of national policies and dual-carbon tasks, land use transformation is studied and simulated in multiple scenarios, and carbon stock changes are analyzed based on future land use to explore the path for a region to achieve multi-objective coordination. Drawing upon land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Lintao County, Gansu Province, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamics governing land use transformation. Subsequently, employing the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model, we simulated the projected land use for Lintao County in 2035 under various scenarios. Furthermore, we utilized the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model to assess the change in carbon stock within the study area under each scenario. These analyses aim to furnish a robust scientific foundation for future land use planning endeavors in Lintao County. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The land use transition in Lintao County from 2000 to 2020 showed the strongest motivation for construction land growth, with continued rapid growth in the scale of urban land and other construction land and relatively slow growth in the land for rural settlement areas, while cropland and water areas continued to decrease, forest land grew slowly, the magnitude of land use change exhibited a higher intensity in river townships compared with mountainous townships. (2) The simulation results of cropland protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), economic development scenario (EDS), and comprehensive development scenario (CDS) in 2035 are better. Among them, the CDS, which considers various types of higher-level strategic requirements and can compensate for the single-goal nature of the single-demand scenario, demonstrates a higher level of rationality in the land use pattern. (3) The total carbon stock in descending order is the EPS, CDS, EDS, and CPS. Among these, the CDS is at a higher level of total carbon stock, and the changes in carbon stock in each land use site are more balanced, which is an ideal carbon stock state and a scenario more in line with multi-objective coordination.

Coupling and Coordination Relationship of Economic–Social–Natural Composite Ecosystem in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration

Exploring the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and coupling coordination relationship of the composite ecosystem of urban agglomerations is of great significance for promoting the synergistic sustainable development and integration construction of urban agglomerations. This paper is based on LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change) data, a DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and temperature, precipitation, and other multi-source data, using the central Yunnan urban agglomeration as an example and constructing a multi-dimensional evaluation index system highlighting development quality and efficiency. The entropy weight method was first used to determine the comprehensive weights to evaluate the regional economic and social development level. Then, the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model was used to quantitatively calculate and analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the four key ecosystem services, evaluating the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the natural subsystem. The coupling coordination model was used to quantitatively analyze the evolution of the coupling coordination of the composite ecosystems in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration during the period of 2010–2020, and to reveal its development law. The results show the following: ➀ During the study period, the socio-economic subsystems in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration demonstrated an outward radiative growth from Kunming City, marked by underdeveloped sub-centers and prevalent low-level areas. ② Trends in ecosystem services varied, with water and soil conservation showing fluctuating increases, carbon sequestration remaining stable, and habitat quality declining. The critically important integrated ecosystem services zone of the natural subsystem is mainly located in the northeastern region and southwestern edge of the study area. ③ In 2020, the coupling coordination degree of the composite ecosystem was 0.9492. This showed that economic, social, and ecological subsystems are highly coupled, with consistent overall development trends and strong interactions. ④ The increase in the degree of harmonization amounted to 7.82%, with lagging subsystems varying in the degree of harmonization in subregions. This study can provide a scientific foundation for the development of policies for the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration, promoting regional sustainable development and optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory.

Terrestrial carbon dynamics and economic valuation of ecosystem service for land use management in the Mediterranean region

Land use change is a significant cause of land degradation, resulting in the removal of carbon and its transfer to the hydrosphere or atmosphere, which can have a detrimental impact on essential ecosystem functions and services. In contrast, rural landscapes offer both ecological and economic benefits to people due to their carbon storage properties. This benefit is often evaluated within the framework of Ecosystem Services (ES). The rural landscapes offer unique structures and ecosystem services. The aim of this study is to provide an economic quantification of carbon storage and sequestration in rural landscapes as an ecosystem service and to introduce carbon-based rural landscape management. The study enables the integration of carbon-based strategies and policies by generating quantitative outputs for landscape plans that have not yet been included in the spatial planning hierarchy. The Upper Seyhan Basin (USB), located on the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkiye, was modelled using spatiotemporal and economic valuation approaches to assess terrestrial carbon storage and sequestration in this context. The study modelled and mapped the four main terrestrial carbon storage components in the rural landscape: (i) above-ground biomass, (ii) below-ground biomass, (iii) Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), and (iv) dead organic matter carbon. The future land cover of 2055 was modelled using the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)-Markov Chain (MC) algorithm based on the “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) scenario to determine future carbon sequestration. The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) was estimated for Turkiye using the Regional Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (RICE) to economically model carbon services. In the final stage of the study, modelling outputs, including carbon storage pools/sinks, projected land cover dynamics, and SCC components, were used within the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to map the carbon dynamics of the rural landscape at the regional level. This paper demonstrates the role of geospatial modelling and proposes a new planning and design logic that considers carbon-based inputs and global climate change in an appropriate format for land management by bridging the interface between earth sciences and spatial planning. The study results indicate that, the rural landscape in the study area provided an ecosystem service of 70,266 TgC carbon in 2014 with a storage value of USD 222,853,170. For the 2014–2025 projection, an estimated 1.042 TgC of carbon sequestration was valued at USD 6,234,137. The 2014–2055 projection estimated 3.185 TgC of carbon sequestration valued at USD 58,745,265.

Analysis and Simulation of Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Carbon Stocks in the Haihe River Basin by Combining LSTM with the InVEST Model

The quantitative analysis and prediction of spatiotemporal patterns of land use in Haihe River Basin are of great significance for land use and ecological planning management. To reveal the changes in land use and carbon stock, the spatial–temporal pattern of land use data in the Haihe River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was studied via Mann–Kendall (MK) trend analysis, the transfer matrix, and land use dynamic attitude. Through integrating the models of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), the results of the spatial distribution of land use and carbon stock were obtained and compared with Cellular Automation (CA-Markov), and then applied to predict the spatial distribution in 2025. The results show the following: (1) The land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Haihe River Basin primarily involve an exchange between cultivated land, forest, and grassland, as well as the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land. This transformation contributes to the overall decrease in carbon storage in the basin, which declined by approximately 1.20% from 2000 to 2020. (2) The LULC prediction accuracy of LSTM is nearly 2.00% higher than that of CA-Markov, reaching 95.01%. (3) In 2025, the area of grassland in Haihe River Basin will increase the most, while the area of cultivated land will decrease the most. The spatial distribution of carbon stocks is higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast, and the changing areas are scattered throughout the study area. However, due to the substantial growth of grassland and forest, the carbon stocks in the Haihe River Basin in 2025 will increase by about 10 times compared with 2020. The research results can provide a theoretical basis and reference for watershed land use planning, ecological restoration, and management.

[Change and Prediction of Water Purification Function in the South Bank of Hangzhou Bay in the Past 20 Years].

The investigation of regional water purification functionality and its influencing factors holds significant pragmatic implications in understanding the potential of regional water purification, guiding context-specific regional comprehensive planning schemes, and environmental conservation measures. The study site, situated along the southern coast of Hangzhou Bay, represents a prototypical region characterized by intricate land-sea interactions that bear substantial economic and ecological functions. By assimilating a meticulously collected topographical and land-use dataset, in conjunction with site-specific meteorological records, the water purification model embedded within the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) framework was employed to scrutinize the spatiotemporal dynamics of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads, discharges, and removals within the southern coast of Hangzhou Bay. The prime objective of this study was to unravel the differentials in water purification functionality under diverse developmental scenarios. The investigation unearthed distinct temporal discrepancies in N and P discharges and removals over two temporal dimensions. Relative to the benchmark year 2000, the total N load experienced a reduction of 276.72 t, whereas the N discharge and removals decreased by 140.86 and 137.86 t, respectively, in the year 2020. In contrast, the total P load observed an increase of 93.65 t, accompanied by a surge in P discharge and removals by 28.91 and 64.74 t, respectively. Spatially, the distribution pattern of N and P discharges exhibited a general inclination of elevated values in the northern region and subdued values in the southern region, with certain pockets in the southern region exhibiting pronounced peaks, intimately associated with land-use typologies. Simulation analyses conducted under distinct scenarios unveiled that under the natural development priority scenario, the N and P discharges within the study area amounted to 1 682.36 and 115.50 t, respectively. Conversely, under the scenario emphasizing economic development, the regional N and P discharges showed an approximate escalation of 83.02% and 79.93%, correspondingly. In contrast, under the scenario emphasizing environmental conservation, the regional N and P discharges exhibited a notable decline of approximately 79.96% and 56.44%, respectively. Hence, the scenario prioritizing the amalgamation of environmental conservation and development effectively reduced the N and P discharges within the region, bolstering the water purification functionality. The results derived from this study furnish a solid theoretical foundation for effectuating region-specific planning schemes fostering coordinated economic and ecological advancement within the study area.

The Impact of Territorial Spatial Transformation on Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Suqian, East China

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change, and the transformation of territorial space has a significant impact on the carbon cycle of a country’s terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, evaluating the impact of space transformation on carbon storage is essential for enhancing regional carbon storage potential and reducing carbon emissions. We use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to analyze the dynamic changes in territorial spatial transformation and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 in Suqian, as well as their relationship. On this basis, the optimization strategy and specific path for improving territorial space carbon storage capacity were determined. The results show the following: that (1) from 2000 to 2020, territorial spatial transformation in Suqian was dramatic, with the most significant changes occurring between 2005 and 2010. The scale of mutual transformation between agricultural production space and urban–rural construction space was the largest. (2) Carbon storage gradually decreased in Suqian City, with a total reduction of 1.23 × 106 tons over 20 years and an annual decrease of 1.46%. The carbon density of forested space was significantly higher than that of other spaces. The conversion of agricultural production space and forestland space to urban–rural construction space was the main factor driving a decrease in carbon storage. (3) Territorial spatial transformation is a spatial manifestation of the evolution of human–land relationships. Regulating the function, scale, structure and layout of territorial space as a whole and implementing differentiated management of specific space will be beneficial to optimize carbon storage in Suqian.

Prediction of ecological security network in Northeast China based on landscape ecological risk

The expansion of human activities has significantly increased ecological risks, which threaten the security of ecosystems. This paper takes Northeast China, a national typical ecological barrier region, as a case study to explore the evolution of the ecological environment under various future development scenarios. Considering the complexity of ecological assessments, a comprehensive approach integrating various methods is employed. This includes the Patch-based Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, a landscape ecological risk assessment index system, the Space Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, among others. These methods are used to dynamically assess changes in land use, landscape ecological risk (LER), and the layout of ecological networks. An integrated framework is proposed for identifying, constructing, and optimizing the ecological security network (ESN). The results show that the LER in Northeast China presents a “high in the middle, low around” distribution characteristic. High risk areas are mainly distributed in water bodies and construction lands with high landscape fragmentation and isolation, while low risk areas are primarily in the Northeast forest belt and Inner Mongolia grassland areas with lower landscape vulnerability and separation. From 2000 to 2020, the LER in the Northeast China has increased, primarily manifested in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Range areas in the northern part of the study region. Forecast results indicate significant differences in the evolution of LERs and the layout of the ESN under different socio-economic development scenarios. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the average LER in Northeast China is 0.2215. The area of ecological source lands is 302,405.56 km2, the length of ecological corridors is 179,024.71 km, with 339 ecological nodes and 410 ecological breakpoints identified. Compared with the natural development (ND) and urban construction (UC) scenarios, the EP scenario in Northeast China shows the lowest LER and the most ideal layout of the ESN. This study provides a reference for future land resource optimization and ecological restoration in Northeast China.

Geospatial mapping of carbon estimates for forested areas using the InVEST model and Sentinel-2: A case study in Galicia (NW Spain)

CO2 emissions have increased exponentially in recent years, so measuring and quantifying carbon sequestration is a step towards sustainable forest management and combating climate change. The overall goal of this study is to develop an accurate model for estimating carbon storage and sequestration for forest areas of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region. Specifically, the modelling and field sampling are carried out in the municipality of Baiona (Galicia, NW Spain), which was selected as a representative biome of this region. The methodology consists of carrying out two object-based image analysis (OBIA) classifications in spring and autumn to observe possible stocks of seasonal differences. Two carbon storage and sequestration models are built up (model 1 and model 2): model 1 for forest areas only and model 2 including all other land cover in the study area. Sentinel-2 geospatial data for 2021, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) tools and geographic information systems (GIS) are used. A Kappa index of 0.92 is obtained for both classifications, thus ruling out any notable seasonal differences in the images used. The results from both models indicate that it is land covers associated with forest uses which store the most carbon in the study area, accounting for >50 % more than the other land covers. It is concluded that the methodology and data used are very useful for quantifying ecosystem services, which will help the governance of the region by implementing measures to mitigate some of the effects of climate change and help to create silvicultural models for the sustainable management of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region.

Factor analysis of hydrologic services in water-controlled grassland ecosystems by InVEST model and geodetector.

Water conservation is highly important for a successful desert grassland ecosystem, but there was no comprehensive view on how to assess influencing factors in managing and addressing water yield and water conservation in desert steppe. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, which is specifically used for the assessment of ecosystem services, was combined with geographic detectors to identify the priority areas for water conservation function and analyze the driving factors of water conservation in the Tabu River Basin, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, using different meteorological data sources. (i) The InVEST model has the advantage of modeling water yield and water conservation at spatial scales by fusion downscaling data. High water yield mainly occurs in the southern hilly mountainous areas, low water yield in the northern desert and grassland areas, and between the two in the central agro-pastoral areas; the multi-year average water conservation and water yield based on the InVEST model are 3.3 and 16mm, respectively. (ii) Water yield and water conservation roughly show a transitional phenomenon of "high in the south and low in the north." The water yield and water conservation per unit area of the Tabu River Basin are relatively large for construction land, unused land, and cropland, relatively small for grassland and forestland, and basically zero for water bodies. Forest land has the strongest water conservation capacity, followed by grassland and farmland, while the order of water yield capacity is the opposite. (iii) Precipitation shows the strongest explanatory power for water yield (q = 0.427), followed by land use types (q = 0.411). The precipitation ∩ actual evapotranspiration has the strongest explanatory power for water yield (q = 0.87). The explanatory power of water yield on water conservation is the strongest (q = 0.752), followed by precipitation (q = 0.4), and the water yield ∩ soil has the greatest explanatory power on water conservation (q = 0.91). These findings are crucial for promoting regional hydrologic services and can provide a water resources management strategy for decision-makers.

Carbon storage and sequestration in a eucalyptus productive zone in the Brazilian Cerrado, using the Ca-Markov/Random Forest and InVEST models

Tropical ecosystems in Brazil, particularly Mato Grosso do Sul, possess substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential through carbon sequestration in tree forests. However, the expansion of agricultural activities poses a threat to this potential. Notably, eucalyptus forests could enhance carbon sequestration and reduce GHG emissions. This study focused on Três Lagoas, known as Brazil's cellulose capital, and aimed to evaluate carbon stock and sequestration for 2030 under business as usual (BAU) and protected forest (PF) scenarios. Combining Cellular Automata (CA) and Random Forest models implemented in Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated land use scenarios and assessed ecosystem services generated by carbon sequestration. The results showed that the PF scenario indicated a higher total carbon stock than the BAU scenario, with a difference of 2.48 Tg. Carbon sequestration varied by period and scenario. Between 2010 and 2020, 3.88 Tg of carbon were sequestered. However, in the next period (2020–2030), the BAU scenario estimated 2.45 Tg in total carbon sequestration. In contrast, the PF scenario predicted 4.93 Tg of carbon sequestration for 2020–2030, surpassing the previous decade. Monetarily, carbon sequestration in 2010–2020 amounted to $92.48 million, decreasing to $58.49 million for 2020–2030 in the BAU scenario. In the PF scenario, sequestration for 2020–2030 increased to $ 117.43 million, nearly double that of the BAU scenario. In conclusion, combining the Ca-Markov/Random Forest and InVEST models revealed the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon stock and sequestration in the municipality with the largest eucalyptus-planted area in Brazil. The results underscore the significant variability in carbon stocks and sequestration based on classes, periods, and scenarios analyzed. This study contributes valuable insights into the potential for carbon mitigation in this critical region.

Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China

Understanding the relationship between land use and carbon storage is vital for achieving sustainable development goals. However, our understanding of how carbon storage develops under land policy planning is still incomplete. In this study, a comprehensive framework that integrates Gray Multi-objective Optimization Programming (GMOP), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models is introduced to evaluate land use dynamics and ecosystem services. Two scenarios have been established to estimate Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) patterns in the Hexi Corridor by 2035: the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, developed based on historical trends, and the ecological conservation scenario (ECS), optimized with multiple policy objectives. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the predominant land use type in the Hexi Corridor was unutilized land, with LUCC mainly involving the transformation of unutilized land to grass land. (2) Carbon storage in the Hexi Corridor increased by approximately 9.05 × 106 t from 2000 to 2020 due to LUCC, characterized by higher levels in the south and lower levels in the north. (3) The areas of grass land and arable land are expected to continue increasing until 2035, while the extent of unutilized land is projected to decrease. The ECS is poised to create a balance between ecological protection and economic development. (4) By 2035, both the BAU scenario and ECS estimate an increase in the carbon storage of the Hexi Corridor, with the ECS expected to result in the most significant gains. These research findings provide valuable insights for administrators and researchers, guiding more rational land use planning and ecological restoration policies to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality.

Novel method for ecosystem services assessment and analysis of road-effect zones

To explore the cumulative ecological effects of roads in ecologically fragile areas, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) tool was applied to assess the spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality, water yield, and soil erosion in road-effect zones of the Western Sichuan Plateau, China. Then, generalized estimating equations were formulated to analyze the impact of synergies among road attributes, climate, topography, land cover, and other factors on ecosystem service changes. The results showed that the habitat quality within the road-effect zones was mostly affected by road grade and structure, and water yield and soil erosion were attributed to the factors of road structure, rainfall, and topography. Roadbed sections had the greatest negative impact on ecosystem services, followed by bridge sections and tunnel sections. Overall, the results of this study address habitat encroachment and soil and water loss in ecologically fragile areas, contributing to knowledge on green infrastructure planning.

Projecting the response of ecological risk to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC), leading to ecosystem service (ES) degradation and further ecological risks. Ecological risks are particularly serious in ecologically fragile regions because trade-offs between economic development and ecological protection are prominent. Thus, ways in which to assess the response of ecological risks to LULC change under each development scenario in ecologically fragile regions remain challenging. In this study, future LUCC and its impact on ESs under four development scenarios in 2040 in western Jilin Province were predicted using a patch-generating land use simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. Ecological risk was assessed based on future LUCC possibilities, and potential ES degradation and potential drivers of ecological risks were explored using a geographic detector. The results showed that the cropland development scenario (CDS) would experience large-scale urbanization and cropland expansion. Carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and water purification (WP) degraded the most under the CDS, and grain yield (GY) and water yield (WY) degraded the most under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The LUCC probability under the CDS (14.37 %) was the highest, while the LUCC probability under the comprehensive development scenario (CPDS) (8.68 %) was the lowest. The risk of WP degradation was greatest under the CDS, but the risk of soil retention (SR) degradation was greatest under the natural development scenario (NDS), EPS, and CPDS. Ecological risk coverage was the largest (98.04 %), and ecological risks were the highest (0.21) under the CDS, while those under the EPS were the opposite. Distance to roads and population density had a higher impact on ecological risks than other drivers. Further attention should be given to the ecological networks and pattern establishment in urbanized regions. This study will contribute to risk prevention and sustainable urban and agricultural development.

Spatiotemporal Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Associated Runoff Impact in Itaperuna, Brazil

The urban growth intricately linked to the hydrological cycle outlines a crucial dynamic in the environmental transformations of cities. Utilizing the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model, we conducted hydrological modeling to assess the impact of urbanization on land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their subsequent effects on runoff generation in Itaperuna, Brazil, spanning the years 2015 to 2020. The analysis, performed across 17 urban sub-basins, highlights rapid urban expansion, notably in sub-basins 3 and 7, reflecting the city’s spatial dynamics and growth. Significantly, sub-basin 3 exhibited a 7.42% increase in runoff production capacity. The study meticulously documents changes in six LULC categories—water bodies, urban area, exposed soil, forest, natural pasture, and grassland vegetation—revealing that urban growth has directly amplified surface runoff in specific sub-basins, thereby impacting water resource management and flood prevention. Emphasizing the urgency of environmental conservation, especially in deforested basins, the findings hold substantial importance for urban planners and local authorities, offering relevant insights for flood risk mitigation and water security. Future research directions may explore additional facets, including water quality, advanced hydrological models, impacts on biodiversity and society, socioeconomic assessments of preventative measures, public policy considerations, and monitoring systems.

Optimizing natural boundary definition and functional zoning in protected areas: An integrated framework encompassing species, landscapes and ecosystems

To promote the harmonized development of economic construction and ecological protection, our study introduces an integrated framework that employs various methodologies to delineate natural reserve boundaries and spatial zoning. These methodologies aim to address issues such as insufficient protected area, excessive human-induced influences, and inadequate protection of endangered animals within nature reserve boundaries. Leveraging comprehensive data from diverse sources, including ground surveys and remote sensing detection, we conducted a survey using the Chebaling National Nature Reserve in China and its environs as a case study. Models such as the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), Fragstats, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) were employed to identify areas with highly suitable habitats, significant landscape diversity, and superior ecosystem quality for 16 key species. Subsequently, the irreplaceable value of the research area was calculated using the Marxan model, leading to the establishment of a novel natural boundary and development plan. We propose expanding the original nature reserve to 1344 km², dividing it into a core reserve (321 km², 23.88%) and a general control area (1023 km², 76.12%). Additionally, we recommend further division of the general protected area into several functional zones to facilitate the integration of functional diversity and ecological protection. This contributes to a more scientifically informed and rational management approach for the Chebaling National Nature Reserve. Moreover, this integrated framework offers valuable insights for assessing and identifying animal habitats globally and spatially zoning other nature reserves.

Riparian habitat quality as an indicator of land use/land cover effects on riverine water quality

Riparian land use/land cover (LULC) plays a crucial role in maintaining riverine water quality by altering the transport of pollutants and nutrients. Nevertheless, establishing a direct relationship between water quality and LULC is challenging due to the multi-indicator nature of both factors. Water quality encompasses a multitude of physical, chemical, and biological parameters, while LULC represents a diverse array of land use types. Riparian habitat quality (RHQ) serves as an indicator of LULC. Yet, it remains to be seen whether RHQ can act as a proxy of LULC for assessing the impact of LULC on riverine water quality. This study examines the interplay between RHQ, LULC and water quality, and develops a comprehensive indicator to predict water quality. We measured several water quality parameters, including pH (potential of hydrogen), TN (total nitrogen), TP (total phosphorus), Twater (water temperature), DO (dissolved oxygen), and EC (electrical conductivity) of the Yue and Jinshui Rivers draining to the Han River during 2016, 2017 and 2018. The water quality index (WQI) was further calculated. RHQ is assessed by the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. Our study found noticeable seasonal differences in water quality, with a higher WQI observed in the dry season. The RHQ was strongly correlated with LULC compositions. RHQ positively correlated with WQI, and DO concentration and vegetation land were negatively correlated with Twater, TN, TP, EC, cropland, and construction land. These correlations were stronger in the rainy season. Human-dominated land, such as construction land and cropland, significantly contributed to water quality degradation, whereas vegetation promoted water quality. Regression models showed that the RHQ explained variations in WQI better than LULC types. Our study concludes that RHQ is a new and comprehensive indicator for predicting the dynamics of riverine water quality.

Effects of driving factors on water supply function under different basins and spatial scale in Zoige alpine wetland, China

Water supply is one of the core ecosystem services functions for wetland. Due to the important status of Zoige wetland, assessment of water supply in Zoige wetland is significant for ecological security all over the world. In this paper, Heihe and Baihe basins in Zoige wetland were taken as research objects, the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to spatially quantify water supply, with the aims of revealing the driving mechanism of water supply under different basins and spatial scale. We observed the spatial pattern change of water yield under baseline and eleven future scenarios and used the ANOVA of repeated measures and multiple linear regression model to explore the patterns and driving factors of water supply in Heihe and Baihe rivers basins. The research results were as follow. (1) The precipitation is main factor to improve water yield, but this intensity is different in different basins and spatial scale. Topography, climate, vegetation, and percentage of wetland conditions have important impacts on water yield services. However, the impacts of these conditions on water yield were various significantly across different watersheds and spatial scales (excluding factors such as precipitation, slope, and percentage of swamp wetland). (2) The spatial pattern of water yield main was affected by land use change and the amount of water yield main was affected by future climate change. (3) Water yield in the Baihe basin was more sensitive to climate change, while the Heihe basin is more sensitive to land use changes. Wetland ecological restoration strategies can effectively improve regional water yield, especially in the Heihe basin. (4) In all scenarios, the southeast regions of the study region were both the main hot spots of water yield. Wetland ecological restoration strategies have added hot spots in the north regions of the Baihe river basin, reduced hot spots in the middle-south regions of the Heihe basin.